Only week, scientists warned that a Asteroid “City Killer” He had a small chance of hitting the earth. While that prediction was grateful revisedThe planet may have to worry about another object that moves from the heavens: a spacecraft of the 70s called Kosmos 482.
The spacecraft of the Soviet era aimed at landing in Venus half a century ago they are expected to have no return control to the land in a matter of hours. The reentry prediction map of the Aerospace Corporation currently predicts the object to fall through the atmosphere at 05:54 UTC on Saturday, or 1:54 am et, but that prognosis has fluctuated.
It is too early to know where the medium ton metal mass could fall or how much will survive on the re -entry, according to the experts in space debris.
Dutch scientist Marco Langbroek, professor at the Technological University of Delft in the Netherlands, predicts that the failed spacecraft will return to around May 10. He estimates that it will be blocked at 150 mph, if it remains intact.
“While not without risk, we should not be too worried,” Langbroek said in an email.
Given its orbit, the spacecraft could land between latitude 52 degrees to the north and 52 degrees to the south, Langbroek wrote in a blog post. That representative of a fixed area, including the United States, South America, Africa, Australia and most Europe and Asia to the south of the Arctic circle. Even so, most of the earth is covered by water, so the risk for humans is still low.
S2A systems 
The object is relatively small and, even if it is not broken separately, “the risk is similar to that of a random meteorite drop, several of which borders each year. It runs a greater risk of being beaten by a ray in his life,” Hey said.
The possibility that the spacecraft really hit someone or something is small, Hey added. “But it can’t be completely exclusive.”
Jonathan McDowell, an astronomer in the center of Astrophysics of Harvard & Smithsonian, told NPR that the spacecraft is making its “fall in final death.”
“I hope you have the houses and the usual opportunity of one in Several and the opportunity to hit someone,” McDowell wrote last month. “There is no need for great concern, but you wouldn’t because it attacked you in your head.”
Kosmos 482 released in 1972
The Soviet Union launched Kosmos 482 in 1972, one of a series of Venus missions. But it never left the orbit of the earth because or a malfunction of the rocket.
Most collapsed in a decade. But Langbroek and others believe that the landing capsule itself, a spherical object of about 3 feet in diameter, has been surrounding the world in a highly elliptical bland during the last 53 years, gradually falling into altitude.
It is very possible that the spacecraft of more than 1,000 pounds survives the rent. It was good to resist a descent through the carbon dioxide or Venus atmosphere, Langbroek said.
Experts doubt that the parachute system works after so many years. The heat shield can also be compromised after so long in orbit.
It would be better if the heat shield fails, which would make the spacecraft to burn through the atmosphere, McDowell said in an email. But if the heat shield is maintained, “it will re -enter intact and will have a half -ton metal object that falls from the sky.”
The spacecraft could power between 51.7 degrees of north and south latitude, or as north as London and Edmonton in Alberta, Canada, almost to the end of Cabo de Cabo de América del Sur. But since the majority of the planet is water, “the possibilities are good, in fact it will end in some ocean,” Langbroek said.
Space waste could affect airplanes
The spatial garbage that returns to Earth could be a growing problem for airplanes, the researchers warned in a Recent study.
The authors of the study said that the probability that the space debris will reach a plane is small, but the risk increases due to the increases in both the reactions of the spatial debris and in the flights.
The study found that the high density regions close to the main airports have a probability of 0.8% per year of being affected by a reentry of un controlled rockets, but in an “larger but still occupied airspace they buy” that are surrounded by the main cables in the northern cords in the north, 26%.
“While the probability of a strike is low, the consequences could be catastrophic,” said the researchers in the study, which was published in Scientific Reports.
Space garbage has recently reached the earth
Space rubble have fallen again on earth in recent months.
In February, the debris of a Spacex Falcon 9 rocket that collapsed in the United States entered the atmosphere of the Earth over Poland. Two Pieces of an unidentified object – Both who measure approximately 5 feet by 3 feet – Then they found themselves on the ground. Police said it was possible for objects to come from the Spacex rocket.
The last New Year’s Eve, metal fragments, which are believed to be a rocket, crashed into a Village in Kenya.
In March 2024, NASA faced a demand Of a family whose Florida house was beaten by a piece of metal that falls.
The previous month, the European Space Agency said that a satellite weighs as much as an adult male rhino, made a Uncreated return to EarthRestarting the atmosphere on the North Pacific Ocean between Alaska and Hawaii. Most of the satellite burned as it entered the atmosphere of the earth.
Stijn Lemmens, a senior space debris mitigation analyst of the European Space Agency, told the BBC that “the re -entry of human manufacturing objects in the atmosphere of the earth occurs quite frequently”, which occurs weekly for larger. For bigger. For bigger. For bigger. For bigger. For bigger. For bigger. For bigger. For bigger. For bigger for bigger. For bigger. But the objects usually burn in the atmosphere of the earth before reaching the ground.