Liberal Europeans hate Donald Trump. They also tend to judge it badly. I see this trend particularly represented in the media, where illusion is the guiding principle. The media brought the wrong political conclusions about their criminal trials last year. Now they are judging the court ruling last week blocking their reciprocal tariffs on April 2.
Why Legal Warfare Alone Won’t Stop Trump
As Donald Trump faces a gauntlet of legal challenges—from criminal indictments to civil penalties—the belief that courtroom battles might derail his political comeback has become widespread. But this hope may be misplaced. Here’s why legal warfare, or lawfare, won’t be enough to stop Trump—and might even strengthen his appeal.
1. The Courtroom Is Not the Ballot Box
While prosecutors and judges deal with facts and statutes, voters operate on emotion, identity, and perceived grievance. Trump has skillfully cast himself as a political martyr, convincing supporters that legal attacks are politically motivated. For his base, every indictment is not a red flag but a badge of honor.
2. Convictions Don’t Guarantee Disqualifications
Even if Trump is convicted, there’s no guarantee he’ll be disqualified from running for or serving as president. The U.S. Constitution sets minimal eligibility criteria for presidential candidates—age, citizenship, and residency. Legal convictions, even for felonies, don’t automatically bar someone from office.
3. Lawfare Feeds the Populist Narrative
Every headline about a new charge or court date fuels Trump’s narrative that “the system is rigged.” This story resonates deeply with millions who already feel alienated from political elites and institutions. The more the legal system is seen as a weapon of political elites, the more populist support may consolidate around Trump.
4. Elections Are Still the Final Battlefield
Ultimately, Trump’s fate lies with voters, not prosecutors. The opposition must offer a compelling political alternative—not just hope that courts will do the job democracy must do itself. Relying solely on lawfare is not a strategy; it’s a gamble.
5. Legal Wins, Political Losses
Even if the legal system holds Trump accountable in court, it could cost more than it gains. Should Trump lose a case but gain sympathy and momentum, the net result could be a political boost, not a defeat.