While it is very early to make radical decisions about the WNBA MVP candidates, there are some players who have separated in the largest conversations in the League. Napheesa Collier, Allisha Gray and Caitlin Clark seem to be the names that float more frequently between fans and the media such as the best current options, which the three are backed in the first six in the probabilities of bets.
According to Fanduel, Collier (-340) is the current favorite, while Clark (+280) has the second most likely, followed by Breanna Stewart de la Libertad (+5,000) and a three-way draw between Gray, the Mercury star, Alyssa Thomas, and the winner reigning A’ja Wilson of the Aces Las Vegas (+7,500).
There are so many things that voters can think when making their MVP decision. Statistics are a tool to inform decisions, but they should not be the only factor that determines the awards. Often, some of these depth statistics can be used as a tiebreaker if a voter is struggling to choose between two or three candidates.
As an exercise, let’s take a look at the statistics of Collier, Clark and Gray, side by side, (all numbers through Hall statistics):
MVP candidates statistics
| Statistics | Naphesa Collier | Caitlin Clark | Allisha Gray |
|---|---|---|---|
| Statistics | Naphesa Collier | Caitlin Clark | Allisha Gray |
| Equipment record | 11-1-1 | 6-6 | 8-4 |
| Games played | 11 | 7 | 12 |
| Points per game | 24.4 | 19.9 | 20.4 |
| Bounces per game | 8.5 | 5.7 | 5.4 |
| Assists for game | 3.6 | 8.7 | 4.5 |
| Field goal % | 52.40% | 41.70% | 50.60% |
| Field objectives tried by game | 17.2 | 15.4 | 13 |
| Field objectives made by game | 9 | 6.4 | 6.6 |
| % Of three points | 42.10% | 35.50% | 42.30% |
| Tres stains attempts by game | 3.5 | 8.9 | 5.9 |
| Three miles made by game | 1.5 | 3.1 | 2.5 |
| Free rice % | 93.10% | 79.40% | 81.40% |
| Theft by game | 1.8 | 1.3 | 1.1 |
| Blocks per game | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.5 |
| Ball losses by game | 23 | 5.3 | 1.5 |
| Use rate % | 29.80% | 28.80% | 21.90% |
| Offensive qualification | 121.6 | 101.3 | 133.6 |
| Defensive rating | 90.8 | 94.3 | 97.4 |
| Gain actions | 2.9 | 0.9 | 2.9 |
Some things leave this graphic. The Minnesota Lynx has the best record not only among these players but throughout the League, which is something that has a lot of weight in the MVP conversation. Unless the Lynx experiences a difficult patch, they are likely to remain in the top-2 of the league classification throughout the year, giving Collier an advantage over his fever and his dream counterparts.
Going down to the real statistics of the player, Collier also leads at both points per game (24.4) and rebounds per game (8.5), which makes sense, given its size and position as a striker. She has 4 points per game ahead of Gray and 4.5 ahead of Clark. Clark occupies the first place for assists, thought, which also makes sense
Collier again occupies the first place in the three categories of field goals (tried, fact and percentage, showing his ability to score efficiently. The percentage of Gray’s field goals is not far away from Collier’s Take more shots, make more shots.
Calculating the true percentage of shooting of each player, which comes from dividing their points by score attempt by 2, Gray has the advantage. The real shot is used as a way of seeing a player’s shooting statistics when the added value of three -point shots takes into account. Gray leads this statistic here with 65% of true shots in the season, Collier has 63% and Clark has a true percentage of shooting or 56.5% so far.
When it comes to traditionally defensive statistics, theft and blocks per game, the necklace returns to the top. The blocks are not surprising again, since it has Gray and Clark’s size advantage, but its ability to obtain 1.8 robberies per game is impressive. Gray commits the least amount of ball losses per game of the three, just giving the ball 1.5 times per game compared to the 2.3 of Collier and Clark’s 5.3 (something that she lies in the league).
From there, we immerse ourselves in the most unique statistical categories of Hope Stats. The use rate measures the percentage of plays, while a player is on the floor that shoots, reaches the line or commit a turnover, a category that Collier leads with a score or 29.8%. Offensive and defensive qualifications are commonly used statistics in basketball to measure the points noted and allowed for every 100 possessions when an individual player is on the court for his team. Allisha Gray leads the offensive qualification with 133.6, which is also in the 100th percentile throughout the league. Collier, on the other hand, leads the defensive qualification, only allows 90.8 points for every 100 possessions, in the 97th percentile throughout the league.
Interestingly, Hall Stats classifies the best players in any WNBA season by profits about any other category. They define these statistics “an advanced statistic that approaches the total number of wines that a player produces for his team through his game in the offensive and defensive wing of the court.” Both Collier and Gray lead the entire WNBA in this category with a 2.9 Win Share score, while Clark has a score of 0.9. This makes more sense since Collier and Gray have played each of more than 10 games, while Clark has not even reached 10 still due to sitting with their previous injury.
Once again, thesis statistics are not the complete image when it comes to MVP vote, and it is still early enough to change. Collier currently leads in 11 of the categories, and ties in 1, Gray leads in 4 and ties in 1, and Clark leads in 3 categories. The conversations around MVP in the WNBA at this time are inclined to Collier, and statistically, it is leading the pack. It will be interesting to see how these numbers change at a later point in the WNBA season, but if the vote happened today (and I had a vote, what I do not do), my MVP choice would be a Napheesa necklace.