The shipping container loads the spring in the Tokyo Bay. Japan depends largely on exports (EC, cars, electronics), faces risks of US tariffs, especially in cars (a 25% proposal of the rate, Trump’s first term was deferred, but remains a concern). Higher tariffs could reduce access to the Japan US market, increase consumer prices and harm GDP growth. However, Japan’s strategic alignment with the United States and the exemptions of some tariffs (steel rates in 2018) sacrifice partial relief. Japan has also revolved to diversify trade through agreements such as CPPPP and RCEP, reducing the dependence of the US market.
Japan exports in May decreased 1.7% year after year, marking the strongest decrease since September 2024 as the country continues to deal with commercial uncertainties.
The fall was softer than the 3.8% decrease predicted by economists surveyed by Reuters, but it was a reversal compared to the 2% gain record in April.
The data of the Japan Ministry of Commerce revealed that exports to the USA continued to decrease, falling 11.1% year after year. Exports to China, the largest commercial partner in Japan, were 8.8%.
World Automobile exports in Japan fell 6.9%, but in particular, exports of motor vehicles to the US. UU. They fell 24.7% compared to the same period last year.
Japanese car manufacturers represented 28.3% of all exports to the US in 2024, according to customs data. In addition to the current 25% rate in their car, steel exports to the USA., Japan also faces a ‘reciprocal’ rate of 24% in all other exports from July 9.
The data occurs a day after the Bank of Japan stood out in its monetary policy statement that the growth of the country probably “moderate”, due to factors such as commerce, which would lead to a slowdown in the delayed abroad.
“It is extremely uncertain how trade and other policies will evolve in each jurisdiction and how the activity and economic prices abroad will react to them,” added the BOJ.
Stefan Angrick, head of the Economy of Japan and Frontier Markets in Moody’s Analytics, said tariffs are the “main threat” for Japan’s perspectives.
“The deteriorated commercial perspective is not a good omen for exports in the coming months. Even if Japan and the United States reach an agreement that softens some of the most punitive rates in the United States, a complete return to commercial terms prior to previous driving is unlikely.
The fall of exports had already made a dent in the GDP of Japan, with the economy of the country reducing 0.2% in the quarter of March, compared to the preceded period, marking the first time in a year that the economy contracted on a quarter.
Imports to the third largest economy in the world fell 7.7% in May, compared to the expectations of the Reuters survey of a 6.7% decrease.
Japan’s commercial deficit stood at 637.6 billion yen in May, narrower than the deficit of 892.9 billion yen expected by the Reuters survey.
On Wednesday, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, said that Japan was being “difficult” in commercial conversations, after six rounds of negotiations between the main negotiator of Japan, Ryosei Akazawa, the US secretary.
Louis Chua, an Asia Variable Income Research Analyst in Julius Baer, said that Japan’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba had emphasized the importance of the automotive industry as a “great national interest”, and that the conversations of the sector of the Japan sector are the most bets.