The global economy can face an uncertain 2025 in the light of commercial tensions and geopolitical conflicts, but there is a brilliant point in which investors can be comforted: aviation.
The profitability of the aviation industry is expected to improve in 2025, although it is forecast that the growth of the global gross domestic product will decrease to 2.5% in 2025 of 3.3% in 2024, according to the International Association of Air Transport.
In a report published on Monday, the IATA said that the income, the operational profits and the net profits of the industry increase from 2024, Altheghieghable of them were lower than the projections made in December.
For example, net profits for the industry are projected at $ 36 billion by 2025, compared to $ 32.4 billion won in 2024, but slightly lower than the December projection than $ 36.6 billion.
The net profit margin of the aviation industry is also forecast that will increase to 3.7% in 2025, from 3.4% the previous year.
It is projected that the total income will reach a maximum record of $ 979 billion, 1.3% more than the previous year, but below the $ 1 billion in their last prognosis.
IATA attributed the best results mainly to two factors: lower fuel costs for airplanes and greater efficiency.
He hopes that the loading factors of the pin will reach a historical maximum in 2025 with an average of 84%of the full year of 84%, “since the expansion and modernization of the fleet remain challenging amid failures in the supply chain in the aerospace sector.” PLF shows how efficiently an airline is filling its seats.
The fuel costs for aircraft averance $ 86 per barrel in 2025, below $ 99 in 2024, the IATA said, saying that it will result in a total fuel bill of $ 236 billion, $ 25 billion incurred in 2024.
“Recent financial data show a minimum fuel coverage activity during the past year, indicating that airlines will generally benefit from the reduced fuel cost. The fuel is not expected to be affected by commercial tensions,” IATA said.
CEO optimism
Air India CEO, Campbell Wilson, told Monica Pitrelli at the World Air Transport Summit over the weekend that 2025 has been “a year of surprises” for the airline “, either political, geopolitics, [or] Closer to home, some conflict problems. ”
India and Pakistan recently closed their airspace to the other aircraft after military attacks carried out on both sides in May. Pakistan airplanes are prohibited from Indian airspace until June 23, and Indian airplanes are prohibited from Pakistan to June 24.
“Uncertainty is not useful for business, but the underlying foundations of this market … and the advantage we see before Air India is promoting us forward, because we believe there is a great opportunity to be carried out,” Wilson added.
He said that India is the third air travel market in general in the world, and estimated that it is growing at an annual growth rate or from 8% to 10%. “Then, if the Indians begin to travel … at the intensity of China, it will explode absolutely in international volume,” he said.
Adrian Neuhauser, CEO from Latin American Airline Company Abra Group, said in an interview on Sunday “when the world sneezes in some way … airlines get sick very quickly.”
However, he said, Avianca passenger loading factors still remain and income has improved. “Then the group is there, but as of today, we are still seeing that the numbers are there.”
Asia the fastest growing region
North America is expected to generate the greatest absolute gain among all regions in 2025, and the Asia and Pacific region will see the greatest growth in 2025, with passenger income 9% year after year, IATA said.
The kilometers of revenue passengers, or RPK, are a volume measure or passengers transported by an airline. The metric is used to evaluate the performance of the airlines and the demand of the passengers.
The IATA said that “if an airline sees an introduction consisting of a route to prlicle on several monnhs, this could invest the carrier to introduce the frequency or deploy larger airplanes and market shades.” Potential increase. ”
He attributed a strong demand for passengers in Asia and the Pacific to the relaxation of visa requirements in several Asian countries, especially China, Vietnam, Malaysia and Thailand.
IATA noticed, however, that the economic landscape poses some challenges, with the prognosis of GDP for the region, in part China, which was reduced.